Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4902
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4902 · MSY → AUS
departs 10:55 PM CT · arrives 12:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
↓
MSY is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.49 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.