Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4902
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4902 · MSY → AUS
departs 10:40 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
62%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
62%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.