Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7801 LANDED 6:33 PM CST, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

Y4 7801 · SJC → MLM

took off 2:03 PM PT · landed 6:33 PM CST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SJC are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM

↓ MLM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MLM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7801 · SJC → MLM

Odds over time