Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
Y4 7801 · SJC → MLM
departs 1:55 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 10%
Sun 10/11 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MLM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MLM?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MLM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.