Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 3986 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YV 3986 · ABQ → IAH

departs 3:45 PM MT · arrives 6:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3986 · ABQ → IAH

Odds over time