YV 3986 · ABQ → IAH

departs 2:16 PM MT · arrives 5:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 2pm departures from ABQ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3986 · ABQ → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?