YV 6286 · IAH → ORF

departs 6:32 PM CT · arrives 10:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
43%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6286 · IAH → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?