Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3423 · CVG → EWR
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 8:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Sat 10/3 3%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 4%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.