Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3456
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3456 · CLT → EWR
departs 3:55 PM ET · arrives 6:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 0.16 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.