Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3578 · PIT → EWR
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 51%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±20 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.