Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3578 · PIT → EWR
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Wed 10/7 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.