Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3651 · IAD → PWM
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip none
PWM (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.