Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3651 · IAD → PWM
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
PWM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.