Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3651 · IAD → PWM
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
PWM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.27 in
PWM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.