Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4401 LANDED 12:41 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

YX 4401 · ILM → LGA

took off 11:29 AM ET · landed 12:41 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +30 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.09 in

LGA (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4401 · ILM → LGA

Odds over time