Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4429 · LGA → ILM
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 15%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ILM that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ILM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,067 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ILM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.90 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.