Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4429 · LGA → ILM
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ILM that day
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into ILM at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.