Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4429 · LGA → ILM
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
41%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +34 pts in 24h
+34 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
ILM usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.