Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4506 · ROA → LGA
departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
ROA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,067 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.