Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4506 · ROA → LGA
departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 33%
Wed 10/7 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
20%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.56 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.