Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4506 · ROA → LGA
departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 33%
Wed 10/7 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
37%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
37%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROA
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.