Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4541 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

YX 4541 · DCA → CHA

departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

CHA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4541 · DCA → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?