Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4554 · LGA → XNA
departs 6:26 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 28%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±13 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.