Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4554 · LGA → XNA
departs 6:26 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 28%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.