YX 4569 · DCA → LGA

departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,533 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4569 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?