Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4572
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4572 · MVY → DCA
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MVY (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.