YX 4594 · DCA → ATL

departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 10:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4594 · DCA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?