YX 4595 · SAV → DCA

departs 3:28 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at SAV that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from SAV are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SAV (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.37 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4595 · SAV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?