Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4600
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4600 · LGA → IND
departs 2:29 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.