Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4600
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4600 · LGA → IND
departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 4:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.