Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4600
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4600 · LGA → IND
departs 2:29 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.