Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4618 · DCA → SAV
departs 6:55 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at SAV that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SAV at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAV (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.72 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.