YX 4623 · YYZ → LGA

departs 1:03 PM EDT · arrives 2:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LGA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4623 · YYZ → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?