Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4685 · DCA → LGA
departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 6:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±12 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.