Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4736 · AVL → DCA
departs 7:42 PM ET · arrives 9:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from AVL are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.