Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4736 · DCA → AVL
departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
AVL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.