YX 4746 · MSP → ORD

took off 6:48 PM CT · expected to land 7:48 PM CT (scheduled 6:19 PM CT → 7:51 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
52%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4746 · MSP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?