YX 4756 · YYZ → DCA

departs 6:15 AM EDT · arrives 7:48 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↑ 6am departures from YYZ are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4756 · YYZ → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?