Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 5715 · PIT → LGA
departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 5:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 33%
Thu 10/8 30%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±20 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.