Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5715 · PIT → LGA
departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 5:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 33%
Thu 10/8 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.