Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 5715 · PIT → LGA
departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 5:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 49%
Mon 10/5 41%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 33%
Thu 10/8 30%
Fri 10/9 23%
Sat 10/10 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.