YX 5852 · DCA → BOS

departs 10:13 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BOS that day

↓ BOS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5852 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?