Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5863 LANDED 12:02 AM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

YX 5863 · DCA → BOS

took off 10:56 PM ET · landed 12:02 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5863 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time