9E 5054 · LGA → ROC

departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 5:02 PM ET

Your aircraft is N153PQ (CRJ9), coming in as 9E 4956 from RDU: in the air, landing about 3:31 PM ET, 5 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts +67 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
70%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5054 · LGA → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?