9E 5417 · LGA → ROC

departs 10:13 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5417 · LGA → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?