Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1040 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1040 · DCA → CHS

departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHS?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at CHS that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CHS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1040 · DCA → CHS

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHS?