Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1203 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1203 · CLT → BUF

departs 10:21 AM ET · arrives 12:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1203 · CLT → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?