Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1292 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1292 · MIA → DEN

departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 10:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

DEN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1292 · MIA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?