Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1431 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1431 · ORD → MIA

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 6:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1431 · ORD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?