Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1576 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1576 · MCO → CLT

departs 1:20 PM ET · arrives 3:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 1pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.88 in

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1576 · MCO → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?